Future Uncertain: Using Scenarios to Understand Turkey’s Geopolitical Environment and its Impact on the Kurdish Question

In October 2005, the authors organized a workshop in Sofia Bulgaria for prominent members of the Turkish academy and NGO community. At the workshop, several scenarios detailing how the Kurdish question in Turkey might evolve over the next 10-15 years were discussed. The article draws on those discussions to present and analyze a series of scenarios on the Kurdish question in Turkey. A scenario analysis is used because the basic premise of this article is that the outcome of the four-way interaction between Turkey, the Kurds in Turkey, the EU, and Northern Iraq remains fundamentally uncertain, and therefore that describing a single future that will emerge is not possible. Instead, given this uncertainty, the key question to ask is what potential scenarios are awaiting Turkey and how and why these scenarios might emerge in response to moves by the state, and developments within the EU, Northern Iraq, and the Kurdish community. Exploring such options can provide a more thorough and nuanced understanding of Turkey’s place in the region and opportunities for the transformation of the Kurdish conflict. Authors Andrew Blum, Ph.D. Center for International Development and Conflict Management University of Maryland College Park, Maryland, USA Ayşe Betül Çelik, Ph.D. Sabancı University Istanbul, Turkey Introduction “In a democratic Turkey in the process of becoming a European Union member, Kurds see a way out. At the same time, the formation of a federal Kurdish region there [in Iraq] is making them proud.” Ahmet Türk, co-president of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) (Milliyet 2005). The above quotation from the co-president of the newly founded pro-Kurdish party, which replaced DEHAP, and is known to be close to PKK (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan Kurdistan Workers’ Party), not only represents how many Kurds see the current political situation, but perhaps also illustrates why many fear the future of the Kurdish issue in Turkey. The quotation indicates that the future of one of Turkey’s most intractable conflicts is still uncertain and evolving. At the same time, it emphasizes that in the years to come, these two external developments Turkey’s European Union (EU) membership process and developments in Northern Iraq will be among the primary drivers that shape the relationship between Turks and Kurds in Turkey. In an attempt to better understand this complex set of relationships, the authors organized a workshop in October 2005, in Sofia Bulgaria, for prominent members of the Turkish academy and NGO community. At the workshop, several scenarios detailing how the Kurdish question in Turkey might evolve over the next 10-15 years were discussed. This article draws on those discussions to present and analyze a series of scenarios on the Kurdish question in Turkey. These scenarios emerge out of the interaction of the two key driving factors that the participants argued would determine the future of the Kurdish question in Turkey. Interestingly, these are the same as those identified by Türk: 1) Turkey’s accession process with the EU, and, 2) developments within Kurdish-controlled Northern Iraq. Thus, it is clear that the Kurdish question in Turkey sits at the nexus of the key international issues facing Turkey. It will therefore both affect and be affected by Turkey’s geopolitical environment and will contribute to shaping both its foreign and domestic policies.